Contrarian Investing
Profit where others panic.
Taking high-conviction positions against prevailing market sentiment — and understanding why crowd psychology creates the most asymmetric investment opportunities. Contrarian investing demands intellectual independence, patience, and a rigorous framework for knowing when the crowd is wrong.
Learning Path
School Principles
FreeThe worldview, founding assumptions, and core mental models of this school.
Foundational Lessons
FreeKey ideas, thinkers, and concepts — the essential vocabulary of this school.
Second-Level Thinking — The Foundation of Contrarian Investing
Howard Marks
The Pendulum — Reading Market Psychology at the Extremes
Howard Marks
Maximum Pessimism — The Point of Greatest Opportunity
John Templeton
The Evidence for Contrarian Stock Selection — Dreman's Data
David Dreman
The Courage of Conviction — Sustaining Contrarian Positions
Howard Marks
Analysis Frameworks
PractitionerThe structured method for analysing businesses or markets using this school's approach.
The Contrarian Investor's Analysis Framework
Howard Marks
Market Sentiment and Cycle Assessment Framework
Howard Marks
Contrarian Thesis Construction Framework
Howard Marks
Distressed Asset Evaluation Framework
John Templeton
Applied Case Studies
PractitionerHistorical investments analysed through this school's framework — what the data showed, what the thesis was, how it played out.
Decision Systems
AdvancedEntry criteria, exit rules, position sizing, and portfolio construction principles.