Cycle Phase-Based Allocation Review System

The quarterly review keeps the portfolio aligned with the current cycle. The semi-annual review asks a harder question: is the portfolio structurally positioned for the range of macro scenarios that could play out over the next 12–24 months?

Why This Matters

Beyond the quarterly tactical adjustment, a deeper semi-annual review stress-tests the portfolio against multiple scenarios rather than a single phase assessment. Dalio's "stress-testing the portfolio against the range of plausible futures" is the most important risk discipline — because the future that actually arrives is usually not the most likely scenario but a combination of outcomes. This review ensures the portfolio can survive the scenarios that are not expected as well as those that are.