Market Cycles
Understand where we are. Position accordingly.
How economies, credit, and capital markets move in recurring cycles — and how to read the signs that determine whether risk should be embraced or reduced. Market cycle thinking is not about predicting the future; it is about knowing where we are and acting with appropriate humility.
Learning Path
School Principles
FreeThe worldview, founding assumptions, and core mental models of this school.
Foundational Lessons
FreeKey ideas, thinkers, and concepts — the essential vocabulary of this school.
How the Economic Machine Works — Dalio's Template
Ray Dalio
The Credit Cycle — The Engine Behind Every Major Market Move
Howard Marks
Reflexivity — Why Markets Overshoot
George Soros
Recognising Bubbles — Grantham's Framework
Jeremy Grantham
Positioning Through the Cycle — The All-Weather Approach
Ray Dalio
Analysis Frameworks
PractitionerThe structured method for analysing businesses or markets using this school's approach.
The Market Cycles Analysis Framework
Ray Dalio
Economic Cycle Positioning Framework
Ray Dalio
Portfolio Allocation by Cycle Phase Framework
Ray Dalio
Macro Risk Assessment Framework
Ray Dalio
Applied Case Studies
PractitionerHistorical investments analysed through this school's framework — what the data showed, what the thesis was, how it played out.
Decision Systems
AdvancedEntry criteria, exit rules, position sizing, and portfolio construction principles.