Market Cycles
Understand where we are. Position accordingly.
How economies, credit, and capital markets move in recurring cycles — and how to read the signs that determine whether risk should be embraced or reduced. Market cycle thinking is not about predicting the future; it is about knowing where we are and acting with appropriate humility.
Learning Path
School Principles
FreeThe worldview, founding assumptions, and core mental models of this school.
Foundational Lessons
FreeKey ideas, thinkers, and concepts — the essential vocabulary of this school.
How the Economic Machine Works — Dalio's Template
Ray Dalio
The Credit Cycle — The Engine Behind Every Major Market Move
Howard Marks
Reflexivity — Why Markets Overshoot
George Soros
Recognising Bubbles — Grantham's Framework
Jeremy Grantham
Positioning Through the Cycle — The All-Weather Approach
Ray Dalio
Reading Macro Indicators for Portfolio Positioning
Ray Dalio
Global Capital Flows and Emerging Markets
Ray Dalio
Historical Market Cycles — Patterns and Lessons
Ray Dalio
Practitioner Lessons
PractitionerDeeper application — how the principles of this school translate into real portfolio decisions.
Portfolio Positioning Across Market Cycles
Ray Dalio
Reading Macro Indicators — The Practitioner's Dashboard
Ray Dalio
Gold, Bonds, and Safe Havens in Downturns
Ray Dalio
Central Bank Policy — What Investors Need to Know
Ray Dalio
Early Warning Signs of Market Tops and Bottoms
Ray Dalio
Currency Risk and International Diversification
Ray Dalio
Analysis Frameworks
PractitionerThe structured method for analysing businesses or markets using this school's approach.
The Market Cycles Analysis Framework
Ray Dalio
Economic Cycle Positioning Framework
Ray Dalio
Portfolio Allocation by Cycle Phase Framework
Ray Dalio
Macro Risk Assessment Framework
Ray Dalio
Applied Case Studies
PractitionerHistorical investments analysed through this school's framework — what the data showed, what the thesis was, how it played out.
Advanced Lessons
AdvancedNuanced edge cases, advanced applications, and cross-school comparisons for serious practitioners.
Early Warning Signs of Market Tops and Bottoms
Howard Marks
Macro Hedge Fund Strategies — How the Best Do It
Ray Dalio
Building a Recession-Resistant Portfolio
Ray Dalio
Next Decade Macro Themes for Indian Investors
Ray Dalio
Decision Systems
AdvancedEntry criteria, exit rules, position sizing, and portfolio construction principles.